Imagine it's a year later, and it flopped.
A pre-mortem is the opposite of a post-mortem. Instead of asking "why did it fail?" after the fact, you ask it before. While you can still do something about it. You picture the plan a year from now, failed, and write down the reasons. It works because "what could go wrong?" makes your brain find risks that "will this work?" quietly skips over.
Then you rank each risk two ways any human can judge: how likely it is, and how badly it would hurt. The ones that are both likely and serious are the ones to deal with now. Enter yours below.
The decision you're about to make
The ways it could fail
Knowing the risk is step one. Having a plan for it is step two.
If a risk above worries you. A cash gap, a bet you're not sure you can afford, a number you can't quite pin down. That's exactly the kind of thing I pressure-test with founders. Send me your top risk and your numbers; the first conversation is free.
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How the ranking works (for the curious)
Each risk gets two plain scores. How likely. Unlikely (1), Possible (2), or Likely (3). How bad. Minor (1), Serious (2), or Fatal (3), where "Fatal" means it could end the whole plan on its own. We multiply the two, so a risk can score from 1 to 9, and sort your risks highest first. That's it. No jargon, just likelihood times impact, the same logic a seasoned operator runs in their head.
The verdict is simple: if any risk is both Likely and Fatal, the honest call is to fix that before you commit. If you have a Fatal risk of any likelihood, or several serious ones, proceed. But with guardrails. Otherwise, the risks look survivable: proceed with your eyes open, and keep watching the top one or two.
This is a thinking aid, not a forecast. It's only as honest as the risks you're willing to write down. The ones you leave off are the ones that get you.
A decision aid for planning. Not legal, financial, or investment advice. Nothing you type leaves your browser. The value is in being honest about the risks, not in the arithmetic.